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Mexicans, wary of past, brace for government change
By Richard Jacobsen
Nov 24 

MEXICO CITY, (Reuters) - Patricia Sevilla has heard repeated assurances from politicians and financial pundits that Mexico is not headed for economic meltdown, but she still does not believe Mexico has broken the six-year ``sexenio'' curse.

``Yes,'' Sevilla replied without hesitation when asked if she expected a financial crisis to follow President-elect Vicente Fox's inauguration next Friday. ``We have an economic crisis every sexenio,'' she said from behind the counter of her family's Mexico City dry-cleaning business.

For the past three decades, economic turmoil has come with the end of each six-year presidential term -- known here as a sexenio -- usually leading to recessions, devaluations and widespread job losses.

This time, however, skepticism on the streets contrasts with views from Wall Street economists, experts at the International Monetary Fund and analysts at debt-rating agencies, who almost unanimously rule out a repeat of the so-called Tequila crisis of 1994.

For Sevilla and many Mexicans, however, memories of the last sexenio crisis in 1994 and similar debacles in the 1970s and 80s keep them on edge as Fox prepares to take office.

Fox also brings an added element of the unknown. A member of the conservative National Action Party (PAN), he will be Mexico's first president in 71 years not from the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI).

PESO CRASH

In December 1994, President Ernesto Zedillo took office only to find Mexico facing a mountain of debt payments coming due and little cash in its coffers to make the payments.

He was forced to let the peso plummet in a free fall from its fixed exchange rate to the dollar, triggering the country's deepest recession since the 1930s.

A $50 billion U.S.-led international bailout helped stem the crisis, but not before severe long-term damage, including the near-collapse of Mexico's banking system. The cost of a subsequent government rescue of crippled banks is now estimated at $100 billion.

Since then, Zedillo has made a personal crusade of ensuring he hands his successor a sound economy that does not contain time bombs of the sort that exploded in his lap.

Mexico's net international reserves now stand at $32.4 billion compared with $6.1 billion in late 1994. The country has about $1.6 billion in foreign debt due next year, compared with $20 billion owed in Zedillo's first year in government.

The government has also set up what it calls ``economic armor,'' a line of $26.4 billion in contingency credits from international sources to act as an economic safety net should trouble arise during the transition period.

The economy is growing at an annual pace of about 7.0 percent and inflation is expected this year around 9.0 percent, the first year of single-digit price increases since 1994.

FOX VOWS DISCIPLINE

Fox has vowed to be more than a match for Zedillo's zeal for economic discipline.

His economic team has proposed a 2001 economic plan that aims to reduce the budget deficit to 0.5 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP), from about 1.0 percent this year.

Anticipating a slowdown in the U.S. economy, which buys 90 percent of Mexico's exports, Fox is shooting for the economy to grow at a slower, more manageable, 4.5 percent pace next year.

``There are really very few reasons why a (crisis) could happen,'' Fox's Economy Minister Luis Ernesto Derbez said in a recent Reuters interview. ``It would happen if we had a spending program that called for a budget deficit of 5 percent of GDP, or if we tried to grow the economy by 7 or 8 percent next year so that everything exploded. But we're planning and will execute exactly the opposite.''

Nonetheless, many Mexicans are still not at ease.

Sevilla said she and her family were economizing at home in order to save a little cash just in case. This despite her expressed support for Fox and confidence that things will eventually improve under the new regime.

``He's going to face a lot of problems,'' she said. ``But little by little he's going to resolve them.'' 

Tequila Fair Begins Next Week
Nov. 23

MEXICO CITY, (Reforma/Infolatina)-- Mexico's 24th National Tequila Fair will be staged in the town of Tequila, in the state of Jalisco, from Nov. 29 through Dec. 12, local authorities said. Tequila Mayor Gustavo Macias said the fair is expected to generate around 600, 000 pesos in earnings for the town government, or 100,000 pesos more than the last occasion on which the event was held. "The money will be used to improve facilities for tourists," Macias said. National Tequila Industry Chamber Vice President Carlos Hernandez said the number of hotel rooms in the town has risen by 50 percent, to 105. "On average around 300,000 tourists per week visit Tequila, Jalisco, and 70 percent are international tourists," Hernandez said. Eleven companies will be represented at the fair, he said, including Sauza, Cofradia, Virreyes, Tres Mujeres, Sierra Brava and Orendain. 

Casa Cuervo Places 1.1 Billion Pesos In Corporate Debt
Nov. 16

MEXICO CITY, (El Financiero/Infolatina)-- Casa Cuervo, Mexico's largest tequila maker, issued 1.1 billion pesos in corporate notes, the proceeds of which the company plans to use to restructure its medium- and long-term debt obligations. Fitch Mexico rated the notes AA(mex). The company said the placement will allow it to restructure debt taken out with Mexican and foreign banks, and boost production. Cuervo makes 25 percent of all tequila consumed in Mexico. 

Agave Monopoly Investigation Results Slated For December Release
Nov. 13

MEXICO CITY, (Reforma/Infolatina)-- Mexico's antitrust agency, the Federal Competition Commission (CFC, as a Spanish acronym), in early December will release new results in its ongoing investigation into allegations of monopolistic practices among the nation's agave growers, CFC senior official Luis Prado Robles said. Prado said the CFC probe is seeking information from all participants in the agave-tequila industry, but refused to provide details regarding the investigation. "Everything related to the commission's internal procedures is totally confidential," he said. Agave Growers Union leader Jose Angel Gonzalez Aldana said the CFC had not yet requested any information from the association, and denied agave growers engage in any form of anti-competitive behavior. 

Bacardi Empty-Handed In Tequila Acquisition Hunt
Nov. 13

MEXICO CITY, (Reforma/Infolatina)-- Grupo Bacardi, headed by Guillermo Codera, fruitlessly has been looking to acquire a brand of tequila, Reforma business columnist Dario Celis Estrada reported. Bacardi executives reportedly believe companies in the tequila industry are vulnerable because of the ongoing agave shortage. Bacardi has unsuccessfully held talks with Roberto Albarran aimed at acquiring Las Trancas, Celis reported. Later, the company reportedly approached Guillermo Romo's Herradura, but the negotiations ended without a deal being struck. 

Chamber Advocates Lower Taxes On Alcoholic Beverages
Nov. 6

MEXICO CITY,  (Reforma/Infolatina)-- Mexican beer, wine and liquor companies are in talks with authorities in an attempt to have lowered the rate of Special Products and Services Tax (IESP, as a Spanish acronym) levied on their products. National Tequila Industry Chamber leader Alberto Curis Garcia said the chamber currently was in discussions on the issue with the Finance Ministry, the transition team of President-elect Vicente Fox and relevant congressional committees. Curis said the chamber's members believe current taxes on alcoholic beverages create unnecessary inflationary pressures. 

Agave Growers Skeptical Of New Commodities Exchange
Nov. 3

MEXICO CITY,  (Reforma/Infolatina)-- Agave growers will wait and see how Mexico's newly launched commodities exchange -- the National Agriculture and Livestock Market (Menagro) -- performs before deciding whether or not participate, Jalisco tequila industry representative Jose Angel Gonzalez Aldana said. "I thinks it's too early to say whether Menagro is going to be appropriate or not for agave growers. We're going to take a look at it first," Gonzalez said. He said that unlike corn farmers, agave growers can make individual deals with the more than 72 tequila companies that buy agave. "We really haven't explored Menagro's business, and we're going to need more time to see what its real advantages are," he said. 

Allied Domecq Profits Up, Mum On Seagram

31 Oct 2000

LONDON  (Reuters)
- British drinks group Allied Domecq Plc reported an underlying 16 percent rise in annual profits on Tuesday, but stayed quiet on the growing tussle over the auction of Seagram's wines and spirits business.

Allied, whose leading spirits brands include Ballantine's Scotch, Sauza tequila, Beefeater gin and Kahlua coffee liqueur, reported pre-tax profits excluding its now-sold Spanish bakery business Panrico of 404 million pounds ($585.1 million) for the year to August 31.

Chief Executive Philip Bowman highlighted last week's agreement to secure the rights for Captain Morgan rum from the Seagram portfolio, worth around $1.5 billion, although the Canadian group appeared later to cast doubt over the deal. 

"We have a contract with Destileria Serralles regarding the change of control of the brand. Further to that, I can not comment further," Bowman said.

Allied said last week it had secured the rights to Captain Morgan rum regardless of whether or not its bid for Seagram's division succeeds. It struck a deal with the Puerto Rican distiller, which has the rights of first refusal over any proposed transfer of Captain Morgan.

But Seagram has said Destileria Serralles would have right of first refusal over Captain Morgan rum only if the brand were sold off alone. Since it was selling the whole division it would not trigger the Puerto Rican distillers right of first refusal.

Allied is seen as a front runner in the race for Seagram's $7 billion spirits business, but faces competition from a combined bid from Diageo and Pernod Ricard .

On the results, Bowman said Allied's wines and spirits division performance was driven by revenues up nine percent and continued cost cutting. The sales line was helped by small volumes increases, price rises and moves to more higher-priced products.

"The growth we are seeing gives us real opportunities to improve our U.S. business, and we have seen our Asian profits double," Bowman said.

Allied shares added one pence to 364p by 0840 GMT after the pre-tax figure came above analysts' forecasts of around 390-400 million pounds.

The group proposed a final dividend of 7.0 pence a share to make a year payout to shareholders of 11.0p.

USA: Seagram Has Three Strong Bidders For Spirits Business
18 Oct 2000

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Seagram Chief Executive Edgar Bronfman said three "very strong bidders" are conducting extensive due diligence on the company's famed spirits business, which is up for sale.

"We are in phase two of the process," he told reporters at a meeting to discuss Seagram's proposed $25 billion merger with France's Vivendi.

The spirits business, which includes labels like Chivas Regal, is expected to fetch around $7 billion. The sale is expected to be announced sometime in December.

Seagram's U.S.-traded shares closed Tuesday at $54-3/16, off a year high of $65-3/16 but well above a low of $36-5/8.

SWEDEN: Vin&sprit Has No Comment On Bacardi Alliance Report
18 Oct 2000

STOCKHOLM  (Reuters) - Swedish state-owned Vin&Sprit, which owns the popular Absolut vodka brand, declined comment on Wednesday on a report it had joined Bacardi in a bid for Seagram's spirits business, possibly worth $7 billion.

The on-line edition of the Financial Times said Vin & Sprit had agreed to contribute financially to a joint bid with privately held rum maker Bacardi and Brown-Forman, a U.S. group which owns the Jack Daniels and Southern Comfort brands.

"Our policy is not to comment on ongoing issues whether we are involved in them or not," Marika Hjelm Siegweld, spokeswoman for the Absolut Company owned by Vin & Sprit, said.

Bacardi and Brown-Forman are now running against a team of Britain's Diageo Plc and French distiller Pernod Ricard and a third bidder Allied Domecq for the Canadian group Seagram's drinks operation.

"I cannot comment on anything concerning our current business. I cannot confirm or deny anything connected to Seagram," Vin & Sprit's spokeswoman Margareta Nystrom said.

But late in August British industry sources said Vin & Sprit had written a letter to potential partners in the liquor industry with a view to joining the auction for Canadian group Seagram's drinks operation.

Goran Lundqvist, President of Vin & Sprit's Absolut Company then vowed to guard its interests in any change of control of Seagram, which has the lucrative exclusive distribution rights to Absolut vodka outside Sweden.

Analysts have said the Absolut distribution contract contains a clause saying the distribution rights could be revoked if Seagram were sold, which would give Vin & Sprit a strong position in the tender.

Seagram's Chief Executive Edgar Bronfman confirmed on Tuesday there were three strong bidders for the spirits business, which is for sale as non-core business after Seagram decided to merge with French conglomerate Vivendi.

FRANCE: Messier sees Seagram spirits sale before year-end
16 Oct 2000
Reuters 

Vivendi Chairman Jean-Marie Messier said on Friday he expected Canada's Seagram (Toronto:VO.TO)(NYSE:VO), which is merging with the French company, to have sold its wine and spirits empire before the end of 2000.

"The sell-off of the wine and spirits activities is under way and it should be concluded around the time of merger completion and the shareholder meetings, that is before the end of the year," Messier told a news conference late on Friday.

He said shareholder meetings of the three merger groups -- Vivendi, its pay-TV unit Canal Plus and Seagram -- could take place at the start of December. The merger will give birth to communications giant Vivendi Universal by Christmas.

The news will set off a fierce round of bidding for the drinks business, worth an estimated $7 billion and which includes labels like Chivas Regal and Glenlivet Scotch Whiskies, with a number of suitors already positioning themselves to bid.

In August, Britain's Diageo (quote from Yahoo! UK & Ireland: DGE.L) said it would join forces with French distiller Pernod Ricard to bid for the wine and spirits empire.

Diageo had been in talks with privately owned Bacardi Limited about a joint bid for Seagram but industry sources said Pernod had come up with a better offer.

Meanwhile Sweden's Vin & Sprit, owner of Absolut Vodka, has been seeking potential partners in the liquor industry with a view to joining the auction process. Seagram has exclusive distribution rights to Absolut Vodka outside Sweden.

Diageo rival Allied Domecq (quote from Yahoo! UK & Ireland: ALLD.L) is expected to enter the fray. Seagram's management together with the Bronfman family, which holds a 24 percent stake in the business, is also believed to be interested in bidding.

France's Remy Cointreay meanwhile has said it may be tempted by some individual Seagram brands that may end up being sold off separately.

Agave Growers Form National Union
Oct. 12, 2000

MEXICO CITY -  (El Financiero/Infolatina)-- Agave growers in the Mexican state of Jalisco and other states within the so- called Denomination of Origin Zone have formed a national union of agave growers that comprises around 2,600 individual members, said the new organization's President, Miguel Angel Gonzalez Aldana. Gonzalez said that while more than 92 percent agave growers are located in Jalisco, four other states -- Nayarit, Guanajuato, Tamaulipas and Zacatecas -- are in a position to produce agave. 

International cops on the frontlines of the tequila beat
Oct 10, 2000
GUADALAJARA, Mexico, (AFP) - Determined to call the shots
in its battle against cheap imitations, Mexico has deployed
international cops on the frontlines of the tequila beat.
"We started working with Interpol a few days ago," said Hugo
Luna, spokesman of the Tequila Regulating Council (CRT.)
With prices of the cactus-like blue agave soaring, the makers of
Mexico's famous hooch recently deployed their own police force to
patrol fields where tequila's key ingredient is grown.
Now they have asked Interpol to help ensure that only the real
stuff should be sold, and particularly exported, under the protected
tequila label.

Only a few days ago, authorities revealed that 110,000 liters of
adulterated tequila had made it across the border into the United
States, as heavily bribed officials looked the other way.
The CRT launched legal proceedings accusing the Mexican
exporters of "theft" for illegally placing the tequila label on the
adulterated liquor.

The industry hopes such revenue-draining scams will become
increasingly difficult, thanks notably to the help of Interpol,
which agreed to affix its hologram on export permits.
Tequila officials are also holding talks with members of the US
Food and Drug Administration on the issue.

The labor-intensive manufacture of tequila is strictly regulated
by Mexican law, which limits production areas and states that the
product must contain at least 51 percent distillate of blue agave, a
spiky plant of distinctive turquoise color that takes eight to 10
years to reach maturity.

In recent years, Mexico has reached agreements with Chile, the
European Union and the United States that recognize tequila as an
exclusively Mexican product.

Last year, Mexico produced more than 190 million liters of
tequila, about half of which was exported. Eighty percent of the
tequila exported went to the United States, and 12 percent to
European Union countries.


Is the tequila bottled in the US real tequila?

October 1, 2000

Both the US and Mexican governments will be checking the tequila bottling process in the US, which has not had any supervision beforehand. 

Ramon Gonzales has informed that the verification of this spirit, that is produced in Mexico and regulated by the CRT and then shipped in bulk to the US, to be bottled under many number of different brands, will start next year. The agents that will carry this assignment will be chosen later this year in a meeting that will be held by both governments, on the Mexican side there will be people from the CRT and on the US side there will be representatives of the BATF, these agencies will determine the details of the verification. The tequila that is bottled in plants of the US will have to comply with the regulations set for this beverage. 

In Mexico there is a strict verification in the production and distribution of tequila, but at this time there is no control in other countries regarding the regulations specified worldwide. In the US there are at least 20 companies that bottle this Mexican Spirit and sell the tequila under more than 160 name brands. Last year 97.3 million litters of tequila 51/49 were sent out of Mexico of which the destination of 80 percent was the US. This tequila is sent in big “pipas” and all of it is 51/49, 100% tequila has to be bottled in Mexico and has to comply with the NOM (Norma Oficial Mexicana) in every detail. 

Although the US dose not recognize the Denomination of Origin of tequila officially, it respects the origin as Mexico and tequila as a unique beverage of this Latin American Country. Other countries including the ones integrating the European Community have accepted the Denomination of Origin of tequila.

CR

Upscale labels driving vodka, tequila growth
September 25, 2000

Hillary Chura
Advertising Age

VODKA AND TEQUILA, two spirits at opposite ends of the product lifecycle, are captivating America's seeming insatiable quest to sample different brands, sip the latest cocktail, and trade up. 

The willingness of Americans to pay more for spirits has allowed the industry to record higher dollar growth than beer for the third consecutive year. Americans last year spent $34.1 billion on spirits, up 4.8%, compared with $56.8 billion on beer, up 1.3%, according to the annual distilled spirits study by industry publication Impact. 

As the country's 10th largest category, tequila grew 12.3% in volume last year, considerably higher than the industry's 2.4% volume uptick. That growth, however, is imperiled by the shortage of Mexican blue agave that is leading to higher prices and fewer low-cost brands. 

Experts anticipate demand for tequila, led by the Latinization of America as well as this country's love affair with Mexican cuisine, could substantially exceed supply within the next four years. 

AGAVE CRISIS 

The agave shortage, compounded by fungal disease a few years ago and black-market profiteering in increasingly scarce agave plants stolen from cultivators, is slowly filtering to consumers. The two biggest brands already have discontinued cheaper lines: The market's leading tequila, Jose Cuervo, shelved Matador; Sauza, second among tequilas in the U.S., dropped Giro. 

"It's too expensive for producers to come out with a cheap brand because you lose money," says Carlos Arana, managing director of Jose Cuervo International. 

Tequila, most often served as shots and in margaritas, is benefiting from America's willingness to pay higher prices for different tastes. Prices already have jumped 15% to 30% in some states this year. 

"When something is in very, very short supply and suddenly found by consumers, prices are going to go way up," says Tom Pirko, president of the beverage consultancy Bevmark. "We're really staring down a chute of massive shortages just as demand is rising." 

Industry estimates suggest that by 2004, U.S. demand could exceed supply by about 1.5 million cases, about 20% of today's total case depletions, Mr. Arana says, noting nobody foresaw the recent growth in tequila (Jose Cuervo grew 8.3% in '99) and planted additional agave, which takes eight to 10 years to mature. Even so, Jose Cuervo has just launched a global campaign, "Viva Cuervo;" it skews to a slightly older age demo of 25-plus. 

VODKA GUSHES 

Heavy on the supply side is vodka, long the country's largest spirits category with 25% of market. "Vodka's well into a maturing category," Mr. Pirko says. 

The imports are the success story. The top five imported vodkas rose a collective 19% last year, double their increase in the prior year, and compared to only 2% growth for all vodkas, according to Impact. One contributing factor is the continued cachet of the martini. 

"Whether or not people actually drinking martinis, the physical stature of the glass signifies they've arrived," says John Vidal, brand general manager of Finlandia Vodka at Brown-Forman Corp. 

ABSOLUT GETS HEAVY SPENDING 

One industry observer says the category remains robust because of heavy marketing dollars from Absolut, the most advertised spirit. 

Absolut, long distributed by Seagram Spirits & Wine Group, spent $32.2 million in measured media last year, according to Competitive Media Reporting. Absolut equates being hip, fashionable and desirable with drinking Absolut. 

Big changes are in store for this market leader, though. The wine and spirits units at Seagram Co. are being spun off as the rest of the company is bought by Vivendi. Eager suitors have surfaced for the alcohol unit, including Allied Domecq and a joint venture between Diageo's United Distillers & Vintners and France's Pernod Ricard. Absolut's Swedish-based parent, Vin and Sprit, may influence who gets the prize. It and Allied Domecq this month were reportedly considering a joint bid for the Seagram's business. 

Top vodkas and tequilas 

Category                            Total category in cases

                                          Percent market share

Rank  Brand                                 1999      1998

 Vodkas                                         36.0        35.3

   1  Smirnoff[*]                           17.1%    17.2%

   2  Absolut                                 10.7        10.3

   3  Popov                                   5.8          6.3

 

Tequilas                                      7.3          6.5

   1  Jose Cuervo                         44.9%    45.3%

   2  Sauza                                   15.3       14.6

   3  Montezuma                          10.0       9.9

Measured advertising

                                              In 11 media   Per 1999

                                                                                                                                                         share

Rank  Brand                                 1999      1998     point

 

Vodkas                                        $62.9     $68.6      $0.6

   1  Smirnoff[*]                            11.4      15.8       0.7

   2  Absolut                                   32.2      29.4       3.0

   3  Popov                                      0.0        0.0       0.0

 

Tequilas                                         5.9      13.8       0.1

   1  Jose Cuervo                             2.7       1.7       0.1

   2  Sauza                                       1.3       4.8       0.1

   3  Montezuma                             0.0       0.0       0.0

Notes: Dollars and cases in millions. Share from Impact's 2000
edition, U.S. distilled spirits study, and include flavors.

[*] Excludes Black. Media from CMR. Categories measured by
nine-liter case depletions.



Agave Shortage Leads To Tequila Shutdowns, Fines
Sep. 25, 2000

MEXICO CITY,  (Reforma/Infolatina)-- A shortage of agave has forced 30 percent of Mexico's tequila producers to shut down operations, the Tequila Regulation Council said. 

According to the council, 22 out of the country's 72 tequila companies have halted production due to an ongoing shortage of agave, the main raw material used to make tequila. 

There are approximately 137 million agave plants in the so-called Denomination of Origin zone in the state of Jalisco, it said, which is not enough to satisfy current levels of demand. The council said that this year it had fined four companies for importing agave from other states for use in the production of 100-percent agave tequila. 


Case Noble Tequilas Dominate First U.S. Spirits Competition
Winning Double Gold, Gold and Silver Awards

September 21, 2000

Los Angeles, Calif. – Casa Noble, producers of boutique tequila imported by Los Angeles-based Vamonos Rapido, established itself among the world’s finest tequila distilleries at The San Francisco World Spirits Competition, the first comprehensive, international spirits judging ever in the United States, held in San Francisco, September 15-17.

Casa Noble received a total of three medals, more than any other competitor in its category and one of the few brands entered in the competition so honored. 

In the Silver/Gold Tequila category, Casa Noble Crystal Tequila ($40) received Double Gold, the highest medal awarded by the competition and one reserved for those spirits that received a unanimous vote for a Gold Award by a particular panel of judges. 

In the same category, Casa Noble Gold Tequila 2 Months ($45) received a Silver Award, presented to spirits that received a consensus vote for that award.

In the Anejo Tequila category, Casa Noble Anejo Tequila 5 Years ($85) received a Gold Award also presented to spirits that received a consensus vote. 

An off-shoot of the highly-regarded San Francisco International Wine Competition, the World Spirits Competition attracted more than 1,000 spirit brands from around the world entered in 43 categories and evaluated by a distinguished panel of 30 judges. Executive Director Anthony Dias Blue is Wine and Spirits Editor of Bon Appétit magazine and director of the San Francisco International Wine Competition, now in its 20th year.

Tequila Production Down 3.6 Percent
Sep. 20, 2000 

MEXICO CITY, (Reforma/Infolatina)-- Tequila production during the January-August period was down 3.6 percent from the year-ago period, the Tequila Regulation Council said. 

According to the council, whose main mission is to enforce quality standards in the tequila industry, total output during the first eight months of the year was 121 million liters, as against 126 million liters produced in the same period last year. 

Tequila fields under heavy guard Skyrocketing popularity of Mexico's traditional drink makes the agave plant attractive to thieves
August 13,2000

Kevin Sullivan
Detroit News

TEQUILA, Mexico TEQUILA, Mexico -- Men in black SWAT suits, with pistols on their hips and combat knives sheathed to their thighs, stand guard over vast fields of blue agave plants, prized for their juice that produces tequila. Around the clock they patrol the dirt paths that crisscross endless acres of the cactus-like plants, five-foot-tall starbursts that tint the valley floor smoky-blue in the namesake capital of Mexico's national drink.

Until four months ago, the only security in these hot, sleepy fields 300 miles northwest of Mexico City was Roberto Castaneda Flores, an old mustachioed cowboy nudging his ancient horse along with jangling spurs. But as global demand for suddenly chic tequila booms, and 
as farmers seek to make up for the ravages of a disease that killed millions of plants a couple of years ago, the supply of blue agave plants is dwindling. That has made them increasingly expensive -- their market price has gone up by more than 10 times in a year -- and increasingly targeted by thieves. 

In response, the wealthy distillers in this valley where almost all tequila is produced have deployed a private army to protect their agave plants, which are as important to Mexican identity, and suddenly almost as valuable, as the masterpieces of Diego Rivera or Frida Kahlo. 

"When a person steals agave, he offends the people of Mexico," said Fernando Flores Zuniga, head of security for Jose Cuervo, the world's leading tequila producer. "They are stealing our history, part of our cultural identity." 

Cuervo has sent 125 security guards into its agave fields since April, when it created a security department for the first time in its 205-year history. Even with the new guard force, thieves this week hacked down 120 agaves and stole their juice -- rich cores, which weigh up to 150 pounds each and look like monstrous pineapples. 

That stolen load was worth more than $8,000 at the distillery, a sum that exceeds what most laborers in the region earn in a year. 
Thefts since the tequila boom began, ranging from two agaves to 70 tons of cores worth nearly $70,000, have unsettled Tequila, where most of the streets are cobblestone and most of the buildings belong to Cuervo or Sauza, Mexico's other major tequila producer. 

Overwhelmed local police have happily accepted assistance from the rich tequila companies. Flores said Cuervo has supplied the Tequila police force with two pickups, radios, flashlights, tents, raincoats, food and other supplies to help keep an eye on the agave fields. 

Tequila is more than a drink in Mexico. It is a national passion shared by rich and poor, Indians and those of European ancestry, and which traces its origins to Aztec priests who discovered the agave's potent qualities. 

And like Bordeaux or Champagne, Tequila is more than a name. It is the pride of a distinct region. In Mexico's case, that region locates its center in this flush company town of 35,000 people, which announces itself to visitors with a billboard: "Welcome to Tequila, 
Population: 100 Percent Agave." 

The unusual rise in crime here, where almost everyone depends on tequila for his livelihood, is a direct result of the phenomenal global success of tequila. In the past five years, tequila's image has undergone a remarkable makeover, evolving from frat-party booze to a chic sipping drink selling for top-shelf prices in fancy bars from San Francisco to London. 

"People are more interested in tequila now; they don't want to just do shooters," said Dan Mesches, a partner in the Red Sage restaurant in Washington, which carries a selection of 46 tequilas with prices ranging up to $16 a shot for a Porfidio Anejo Cactus with its "smooth, 
peppery finish." 

"Just five years ago, tequila companies were begging us to carry their product," Mesches said in a telephone interview. "But now, as people become more affluent, they are seeing tequila not just as a rot-gut liquor, but as something you can use as an after-dinner drink 
in a snifter." 

In the Tequila valley, Jose Luis Gama, 53, is delighted to hear that customers at trendy American restaurants enjoy the fruits of fields where he now works with his son, and where his grandfather and father worked before him. For most of his life he has been out here, 
hacking the long, spiky leaves off agave plants with a coa, which resembles the long-handled paddles used to remove pizzas from hot ovens, except that the coa is sharp as a razor. Gama said the only thing new is the armed guards watching him. But, he said, smiling under 
his sweat-stained straw hat, "I'm glad they're here." 

Tequila crisis
August 1, 2000

Simeon Tegel

Could a shortage of agave endanger Mexico's beloved national drink? 
Mexicans might like to wait before breathing a sigh of relief at the smooth run ning of the presidential elections in July and the lack of any signs that there will be the traditional, accompanying economic meltdown. 

Arguably, another far more important calamity is about to hit their country, one that would strike at the heart of Mexicans' sense of national identity and then leave them without even the consolation of their favorite drink. 

The so-called "Tequila Crisis" has been looming for several years but is finally about to take on alarming proportions as the shortage of agave, the plant from which the drink is distilled, begins to bite. 

Both domestic and foreign demand for tequila has been rising steadily over the last decade, forcing manufacturers to plunder agave plantations at an ever greater rate to keep up with the sales boom. 

In 1994, Mexico produced 66.5 million liters of tequila. Last year, the number had shot up to nearly 191 million liters. The harvesting of agave over the same period rocketed from 235,000 tons to 780,000 tons. The dramatic jump is due to many factors. The peso crash in 1994 suddenly forced many Mexicans to stop buying high-priced foreign spirits, boosting a rediscovery of tequila, now regarded as an important part of the national heritage. 

At the same time, the fiery drink became cheaper to export and the fashion for tequila shots and margaritas swept across much of Europe and the United States. Exports totalled 47 million liters in 1994 but rocketed to 97 million liters in 1999. 

And yet European demand for Mexican tequila is still a long way from being sated. Under a trade deal signed in May 1997, the European Union recognized tequila's denomination of origin for the first time. 

As the treaty only now comes into effect, European demand for Mexican tequila will rise dramatically as the phony brands previously consumed across the old continent, often from Spain, are outlawed. 

Europe's new thirst for real tequila has taken the industry almost completely by surprise. "None of this was predicted. It was impossible to do so because we had spent 20 years fighting with Europe for this (denomination of origin) recognition," explains Ram6n 
Gonzalez, general director of the Tequila Regulatory Council. 

Other factors have also contributed to the shortage of blue agave. About S percent of the crop is lost to bacteria and fungus, although it should be stressed that this is within the expected margins for most types of agriculture. In 1996, a sharp frost also killed many of 
the plants. 

As a result, the tequila industry bosses now have a serious headache working out how to bridge the growing gap between supply and demand. Over the last 12 months, prices for many brands have already increased by 20 percent, and, in some cases, significantly more. About 
40 smaller manufacturers have gone out of business and, if the Worst-case scenario unfolds, overall production could halve in the next year.

LIMITED EDITION Tequila is distilled from the Agave Tequilana Weber, or blue agave, which indigenous people have used for food, cloth, 
medicine, and paper for centuries. The tequila-making process is thought to have changed little since the juice from the heart of the agave was first distilled during the early colonial period. 

The process is strictly regulated under the recently won and highly coveted denomination of origin, a similar legal recognition to the one the French government and the European Union gave to champagne. 

Under that law, only the state of Jalisco and small parts of Tamaulipas, Guanajuato, Michoacan, and Nayarit, where growing conditions are deemed optimum, are allowed to label their product tequila. 

Both domestic and foreign demand for tequila has been rising steadily over the last decade,forcing manufacturers to plunder agave plantations at an ever greater rate to keep up with the sales boom. 

With spikes and steely-blue leaves, the blue agave is commonly mistaken for a cactus but is in fact related to the lily. Usually harvested between eight and 12 years, the pineapple-like core grows to the size of a basketball and can weigh up to 60 kilograms. 

A standard 75 centiliter bottle of pure tequila, made from 100 percent blue agave, uses about seven kilograms of the plant. Blended tequila, which must still be made from a minimum of 51 percent blue agave, uses about 3.5 kilograms.

Workers known as jimadores dig the plant from the ground and then trim off the leaves with a hoe-like instrument, leaving just the core. An experienced jimador can complete the process in a couple of minutes. 

The heart or "pina" of the agave is then chopped up and cooked in ovens for up to 72 hours to produce a sweet, honey-like juice called aguamiel from which the tequila is distilled. Yeast and sugar cane are added to the blended variety to help fermentation. 

AGAVE BLUES 

According to the Jalisco Secretariat of Rural Development, the number of healthy agave plants under cultivation has almost halved in the last three years due to high demand, falling from 203 million in 1997 to 107 million now. 

To counter that shortage, manufacturers plan to plant 30 million agave plants this year, 32 million in 2001 and 38 million in 2002, although there will still be a lag of several years before they are ready to be harvested. 

The current crisis is just the latest downturn in what is a cyclical business. Under the original l9th-- century law, all tequila had to be made from 100-percent blue agave. That law was amended during an earlier shortage in 1964 to allow tequilas to be made from only 70 percent blue agave. It was changed a second time in 1994 to allow tequilas to be made from just 51 percent. 

Some tequila manufacturers talk, usually privately, of rewriting the legislation again to allow tequilas made From as little as 20-percent blue agave, with the remainder of the drink's sugar coming from other sources such as cane. 

"If you already have tequilas that are not 100 percent agave then why must they be 51 percent?" asks Rodrigo Penafiel, a spokesman from Jose Cuervo, one of the industry's giants which, like most of the big players, makes much of its sales from blended tequila. 

However, such a move could have grave long-lasting implications for tequila's image among consumers in Mexico and around the world, and entail the loss of the denomination of origin. 

Indeed, in June, Peter H. Cressy, president of the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States, wrote to Carmen Quintanilla Madero, general director of the Commerce Secretariat's regulation department, to urge against any reduction in the agave content. 

"Although we recognize the enormous pressure caused by the current scarcity of agave, we believe that the crisis is temporary and we are against any reduction in the minimum content of agave," wrote Cressy. 

In any event, the hardest-hit are the smaller brands specializing in pure tequila such as Don Julio and Cazadores. The latter has already said it will not reduce its agave content from 100 percent. 

"We are not going to reduce the quality of our tequila," says Manuel Vazquez, Cazadores' sales director. "The price doesn't matter as much as the customer always knowing he is getting the same, quality product." 

Nevertheless, Vazquez echoed the concerns of many in the industry that as tequila prices rise, consumers, particularly in Mexico, may turn to foreign spirits. Why should a Mexican buy tequila when he can have the prestige of Johnnie Walker whiskey for the same price?
 
To counter the problems, the distillers have embarked on research to develop faster-growing plants, with the aim of reducing the growing cycle by up to a third. 

They are also trying to strengthen troubled links with agave growers. Agave prices have gone through the roof since the shortage first began. As a result, one kilogram of agave costing 79 centavos in January 1998 now costs around 14 pesos. 

"The increase in the price of agave has already gone beyond what is acceptable," says Vazquez. "Tequila is now getting so expensive that many customers cannot afford it. That is what we are really worried about, that they might switch to another drink." 

But despite this agave price rise of almost 1,800 percent, many small growers are reluctant to continue growing agave and then endure a one-sided haggling process with the distillers. That reluctance only increased in early July when the Tequila Industry National Chamber 
announced its members would refuse to buy agave until prices returned to a more realistic level. 

"You cannot have an industry which isn't integrated with the farming community. We have to break this vicious cycle and create a system where people work together," says the chamber's Gonzalez. 

The industry is also lobbying the government for a reduction in taxes, which can make up as much as twothirds of the retail price for pure tequilas, a major handicap when tequila competes with other Mexican spirits such as aguardiente and mezcal, whose taxes are levied 
at much lower levels. 

With spikes and steely-blue leaves, the blue agave is commonly mistaken for a cactus but is in fact related to the lily. 

Other measures include making a smaller proportion of pure tequila, thus using less agave for the same volume of spirit. Last year, 34 percent of all tequila was the pure blue agave version. That will fall to 10 percent this year. 

Although for the next two or three years, consumers will have to put up with a far more expensive product, these moves should, in the medium and long term, resolve the tequila crisis. 

Hopefully, Mexico's next president elect will not have to suffer the burden of Vicente Fox, who, on being obliged to toast his election victory on July 2 with champagne, complained: "I would rather have tequila." 

Mexico To Celebrate, Toast Openly

TRACI CARL, Associated Press Writer
Friday, September 15, 2000 

MEXICO CITY (AP) -- Mexicans aren't just free to celebrate their independence from Spain on Friday -- they are free to publicly toast the event with a glass of tequila for the first time in 70 years. 

Since President Pascual Ortiz Rubio was wounded in an assassination attempt the day he took office in 1930, the sale and public display of alcoholic beverages have been banned during patriotic Mexican events. 

While it was unclear whether Ortiz Rubio's would-be assassin had been drinking, the measure was apparently aimed at quelling a twin evil: the celebratory gunplay that had become customary at public festivities in Mexico. 

In 1930, Mexico was coming off nearly two decades of almost constant armed conflict, and drinking -- accompanied by shooting off pistols -- was one of the favored ways of whooping it up. 

The battle against the latter custom is still being fought in small towns like Tepotzotlan, just north of Mexico City, where town authorities hang out signs every year on Independence Day banning pistols and collect weapons from would-be revelers. 

It's still against the law to buy a drink on election day -- or during the hours the president gives his state of the nation address. 

And until this year, it had been illegal to even bring a bottle of Mexico's famous drink, tequila, to the huge Independence Day celebration in Mexico City's main plaza, where thousands of masquerading partygoers gather to mark the country's break from Spain. 

Days before Friday's celebrations, officials in several Mexican cities -- including the capital -- announced they would remove the ban on alcoholic beverages as a test to see if Mexico can do without its so-called ``Ley Seca,'' or Dry Law. 

Mario Ramirez, manager of a bar near Mexico City's Independence monument, applauded the decision. ``We are free, so we should be free to drink,'' Ramirez said. ``We are just enjoying the day.'' 

Like other bar managers in Mexico City, Ramirez has stocked up on extra tequila and other liquor for popular drinks, anticipating a big crowd Friday. 

In the town of Puebla, 65 miles southeast of Mexico City, officials lifted the alcohol ban, but also beefed up security in anticipation of festivities. 

The ``Ley Seca'' has generally been taken seriously in Mexico. For those who didn't plan ahead, it was virtually impossible to buy alcohol from stores unwilling to risk a large fine. 

Most Mexicans who wanted to enjoy a drink during the holiday stocked up on liquor before Sept. 15-16, the traditional dry days of the country's Independence Day celebrations. 

The festivities recall events leading up to the day on Sept. 16, 1810, when a priest named Miguel Hildalgo made his famous revolutionary call, marking the beginning of the armed struggle for Mexico's independence from Spain. 

Wearing an oversized sombrero decorated with a Mexican flag, Juan Silva, 37, celebrated Friday with one of many tequila drinks being sold at stands set up around Mexico's Independence monument. 

Silva, who was watching crowds gather around the monument, said he supported lifting ``La Ley Seca,'' as long as people didn't get out of control. 

Besides, he asked, what's a Mexican holiday without the country's favorite drink? ``Tequila is 100 percent Mexican,'' he said smiling and raising his glass in a toast. 

Yet tamales seemed to be more popular than tequila at many stands. Virginia Gonzalez, overseeing one table selling beer and tequila, said sales were slow. ``They are tasting, nothing more.'' 

Still, Marina Resendiz, 28, decided to be safe and spend the day in her Mexico City home, away from the crowds that fill the city's center and far from any possible rowdiness. ``There will be more parties, and more people who don't know their limit,'' she said. 

Agave Price Climbs Again


MEXICO CITY, Sep. 14 (Reforma/Infolatina)-- Although many agave growers in August pledged to abide by a price of reference of 9 pesos per kilogram, the market has established its own price of around 13 pesos per kilogram, and the price of tequila's main input is still rising. Tequila industry representative Joaquin Romero Soria said the agreement between producers and growers had failed because many growers had refused to sign it. A Jalisco agave-growers representative described the August agreement as "an imposition" and "unilateral." "Time has proved us right, and prices remains the same or higher than before the agreement," he said. 

Tequila Producers Turn To Genetically Modified Agave

MEXICO CITY, Sep. 13 (El Financiero/Infolatina)-- The Yucatan Research Center (CICY, as a Spanish acronym) by the end of the year will have supplied 100,000 genetically modified agave plants to tequila producers in the state of Jalisco, CICY Director Alfonso Larque Saavedra said. Larque said the plants would be used to replenish the Jalisco growers' stocks. He said that in view of the agave-shortage-induced crisis faced by the tequila industry in Jalisco and other Mexican states, CICY had pledged to supply companies with 4 million genetically modified agave plants over the next two years. 

1500 Crates of Tequila on the Auction Block

MEXICO CITY, Sep. 12 (Reforma/Infolatina)-- Mexican bank bailout agency IPAB said procedures for auctioning off 67 lots comprising more than 17,000 new and used items owned by government-rescued banks had begun. The goods, said IPAB, are stored in 11 warehouses located in the Federal District, Puebla and Guadalajara, and are the property of Banca Cremi, Banco Union, Banco Obrero and Banco de Oriente. The lots include office equipment and furnishings, computer equipment, industrial machinery, electrical and communications supplies, and 1,500 crates of tequila, among other items, IPAB said. It said auction days had been scheduled for Sept. 22 through Oct. 3. 

Mexico City Suspends 70-Year-Old Dry Law

Mexico City, Sep 12, 2000 (EFE via COMTEX) -- For the first time in 70 years, Mexicans living in their nation's capital will be able to freely enjoy alcoholic beverages on civic holidays, following the city government's decision to suspend the "dry law." 

The Mexico City administration announced Tuesday that the dry law will be suspended for the September 15-16 celebrations marking 190 years of Mexican independence as a "pilot program" to test the public reaction. 

If the inhabitants of the Mexican capital rise to the occasion, the "dry law" that has been in effect on certain civic holidays could disappear altogether. 

The law, which bans sales of alcoholic beverages exceeding the two proof mark on selected holidays, was imposed in Mexico City after Pascual Ortiz was attacked during his inauguration as president on Feb. 5, 1930. 

On September 1, when President Ernesto Zedillo was giving his final state of the union address to the Mexican Congress, the city government applied the dry law for only four hours instead of the usual 24. 

According to official statistics, the change did not lead to any increase in crime or to any major incidents. 

Shopkeepers and distributors say that sales of alcoholic drinks - above all tequila - rise considerably on the nights preceding application of the dry law, which prohibits the purchase and sale of alcohol in public places. 

The approach of the independence observance, Mexico's most important holiday, coupled with the fear that the restrictions will be re-imposed, have led to sky-rocketing alcohol sales in department stores, which are taking advantage of the situation by raising their prices.


Michoacan Could Become Mexico's Main Agave-Growing State: Officia
l

MEXICO CITY, Sep. 12 (El Financiero/Infolatina)-- Agave growers in the state of Michoacan could emerge as the principal suppliers of tequila producers in the state of Jalisco, which would benefit agave production and marketing in Michoacan, the Michoacan state Agriculture and Livestock Development Ministry said. The ministry said conditions were appropriate this year for Michoacan growers to begin selling agave to Jalisco tequila producers. Large-scale agave planting began in the state two years ago, mainly in the municipalities of Castellanos, Jiquipan, Villamar, Cojumatlan, Pajacuaran and Venustiano Carranza, with the backing of the Tequila Regulation Council. Over the past two years, the area of land devoted to agave cultivation in Michoacan increased from 20 hectares to 46.26 hectares. 

Diageo Cheered Up by Drive to Drink


LONDON (Reuters) - Britain's Diageo Plc reported a meager 2.7 percent rise in annual profits on Thursday which appeared to vindicate its decision to focus on alcoholic drinks and jettison troublesome Burger King and Pillsbury. 

Solid performances from its old UDV wines and spirits and Guinness beer divisions came in contrast to Pillsbury, beset by cut-throat competition in the U.S. food industry, and fast food chain Burger King, suffering from falling U.S. franchise sales. 

The drinks giant, which markets Smirnoff vodka, Johnnie Walker whisky and Guinness beer, said its combined drinks business should be able to top the six percent sales growth seen in the year and be the ``engine for growth'' in the future. 

``The performance of UDV and Guinness gives us a very strong platform for growth for the future, while across the whole group the new year has started well,'' said new Chief Executive Paul Walsh in an interview as he seeks profitable top-line growth. 

He said the top-line sales growth of six percent for the combined UDV/Guinness was a good target number going forward and would achieve the group's aspiration of double-digit growth for operating income and earnings per share. 

The combined beer and spirits business was the fastest growing area of the business with profits 15 percent ahead in the year compared with a mere one percent growth at Pillsbury and some six percent at Burger King. 

Group annual pre-tax profits before goodwill amortization and exceptional items rose to 1.815 billion pounds ($2.63 billion) in the year to June 30, and although it came at the bottom of analysts' forecasts of 1.813-1.855 billion pounds, the underlying picture was largely in line with their expectations. 

Annual sales across the group were up four percent to 11.87 billion pounds, while the year dividend payout to shareholders was raised eight percent to 21p a share. 

SHARES MOVE UP 

``Overall, underlying trading was as good as we expected and the headline shortfall in the pre-tax level came from lower than expected contributions from associates, largely Moet Hennessy, and a slightly higher interest charge,'' said one drinks analyst. 

Diageo shares moved ahead 13-1/2 pence to 582p in a mixed UK stock market by 1335 GMT as operators focused on the underlying organic picture which showed operating profits up 11 percent, against the previous year which showed an eight percent rise. 

``They are moving in the right direction to focus on the higher margin parts of the business, and it is one of the better old economy stocks,'' said Nigel Popham at Teather & Greenwood. 

But short-term, the shares are not expected to sparkle until the Pillsbury deal is complete, the Seagram auction resolved and Burger King well on the way to being floated, analysts said. 

The shares have